India-China: Two Asian Giants in an Era of Mistrust and Strategic Rivalry
From the Galwan Valley clash to a widening trade deficit and competition across the Indian Ocean, the India-China relationship has reached its most volatile point since the 1962 war.
Key Takeaways
From the Galwan Valley clash to a widening trade deficit and competition across the Indian Ocean, the India-China relationship has reached its most volatile point since the 1962 war.
- Since the Galwan Valley clash in June 2020, over 60,000 additional Chinese troops are deployed along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh
- India's trade deficit with China has ballooned from $53 billion in 2019-20 to $85 billion in 2024-25, making China India's largest source of imports
- India has banned over 400 Chinese apps since 2020 and tightened FDI rules for neighbouring countries
- China's Belt and Road projects in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, and Maldives are viewed by India as strategic encirclement
- Bilateral mechanisms remain frozen at the military commander level; no political summit since 2019
Evidence
India's ban on Chinese apps has permanently reduced Chinese digital influence in India.
Verified82%- ▶TikTok, UC Browser, and 400+ banned apps lost access to 1.2 billion users. Chinese app market share in India fell from 43% (2019) to under 5% (2025). However, Chinese hardware brands (Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo) still dominate Indian smartphone market.
China's Belt and Road Initiative is purely an economic development programme.
Strong91%- ▶BRI projects in Hambantota (Sri Lanka), CPEC (Pakistan), and Gwadar are structured with debt traps, strategic port access, and military applications. Sri Lanka's Hambantota port was leased to China for 99 years after failing to repay BRI loans.
PLA troop levels along the LAC have returned to pre-2020 levels after disengagement.
Unverified93%- ▶Satellite imagery confirms 60,000-70,000 additional Chinese troops remain permanently stationed in depth along the LAC, with new infrastructure including hardened bunkers, helipads, and logistics depots built since 2020.
Key Numbers
Timeline
India-China Trade Deficit ($ Billion)
Drag to select a range to zoom in
Frequently Asked Questions
Sources
Related Stories
India-US Relations: From Nuclear Deal to Critical Technology Partnership
The India-US strategic partnership has deepened across defence, technology, trade, and people-to-people ties over the past two decades, driven by shared concerns about China's rise and converging geopolitical interests.
India-Russia: The Enduring Partnership Tested by War and Realignment
India's oldest strategic partnership is navigating the Ukraine war, a dramatic surge in oil imports, Western sanctions pressure, and Russia's deepening embrace of China — all while defence dependency keeps the relationship anchored.
The Great Supply Chain Shift: Can India Capture the China+1 Opportunity?
As global companies diversify away from China, India has attracted $85 billion in FDI since 2023 — but infrastructure gaps and policy inconsistency threaten to squander the moment.
Related Entities
Organization
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
India became a full member of the SCO in 2017, elevating its role in Eurasian security and economic cooperation. India's SCO membership provides a platform to engage with Central Asian republics on energy security, counter-terrorism, connectivity (INSTC), and Afghanistan stability. India hosted the SCO Heads of Government meeting in 2020.
BRICS
India is a founding member of BRICS (2009), the grouping of major emerging economies. BRICS has evolved from an economic cooperation forum to a platform for reforming global governance institutions. India uses BRICS to advance its positions on UNSC reform, counter-terrorism, multilateral development bank reform, and the creation of alternative payment systems.
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue
The Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is a strategic forum comprising India, Australia, Japan, and the United States. Revived in 2017, the Quad focuses on a free and open Indo-Pacific, maritime security, critical and emerging technology cooperation, climate action, and infrastructure investment through the Quad Infrastructure Fellowship.